{"id":955129,"date":"2020-05-08T10:55:28","date_gmt":"2020-05-08T07:55:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arb.ro\/?p=955129"},"modified":"2024-01-20T12:24:12","modified_gmt":"2024-01-20T10:24:12","slug":"955129-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arb.ro\/en\/955129-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Redresarea economic\u0103 nu poate veni f\u0103r\u0103 sprijinul industriei bancare - only in romanian"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Interviu cu Gabriela Folcu\u0163, Director Executiv Asocia\u0163ia Rom\u00e2n\u0103 a B\u0103ncilor<\/em><\/p>

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Reporter:<\/strong> Care este situa\u0163ia sistemului bancar \u00een pandemie?<\/p>

Gabriela Folcu\u0163:<\/strong> Sistemul bancar din Rom\u00e2nia este mai preg\u0103tit de criza economic\u0103 ce va urma, comparativ cu anii 2008-2009, dar exist\u0103 o serie de riscuri exogene \u015fi poten\u0163ial endogene. Indicatorii de solvabilitate \u015fi lichiditate sunt la un nivel cu mult peste minimul impus de reglement\u0103rile na\u0163ionale \u015fi interna\u0163ionale. Indicatorul de solvabilitate se situa la 20% la finele anului trecut, \u00een timp ce nivelul de lichiditate imediat\u0103 era de 41%. Inclusiv rata expunerilor neperformante a cobor\u00e2t foarte aproape de nivelul mediu european. Partea pozitiv\u0103 este c\u0103 unele dintre aceste riscuri pot fi evitate \u015fi, astfel, sistemul bancar r\u0103m\u00e2ne rezilient \u015fi apt s\u0103 deserveasc\u0103 nevoile de finan\u0163are din economie. Provoc\u0103rile la adresa stabilit\u0103\u0163ii financiare constau \u00eentr-un mix de riscuri amplificate de pandemia COVID-19. Pe de o parte, avem riscul legislativ exagerat de ponten\u0163at \u00een Rom\u00e2nia pe fondul unui an electoral, iar pe de alt\u0103 parte tensionarea echilibrelor macroeconomice, aspecte ce sunt urm\u0103rite cu interes de agen\u0163iile de rating.<\/p>

Pandemia COVID-19 a creat provoc\u0103ri suplimentare cu consecin\u0163e economice \u015fi sociale f\u0103r\u0103 precedent. Efectele generate de pandemie ar putea \u00eempinge economia mondial\u0103 \u00een cea mai mare recesiune de dup\u0103 Marea Depresiune. \u00cenainte de aceast\u0103 criz\u0103 de s\u0103n\u0103tate, economia mondial\u0103 era a\u015fteptat\u0103 s\u0103 creasc\u0103, dar acum se estimeaz\u0103 o sc\u0103dere de 4-5%. La nivel mondial, \u00eenchiderea activit\u0103\u0163ilor non esen\u0163iale produce o pierdere lunar\u0103 estimat\u0103 de speciali\u015fti la 3-4% din PIB. Magnitudinea impactului \u00een economie depinde de durata crizei de s\u0103n\u0103tate.<\/p>

Efectul de contagiune este inevitabil. Sistemul financiar este inima economiei. Dac\u0103 inima pompeaz\u0103 corespunz\u0103tor, se asigur\u0103 fluxul finan\u0163\u0103rilor at\u00e2t de necesare \u00een economie \u00een perioada de recesiune care va urma. Circula\u0163ia capitalului este esen\u0163ial\u0103. \u00cen criz\u0103, fluxurile de capital sunt \u00eencetinite \u00eentre sectoarele economiei. Orice devia\u0163ie nu face dec\u00e2t s\u0103 \u00eent\u00e2rzie revenirea economic\u0103.<\/p>

Rom\u00e2nia nu poate elimina efectele pandemiei COVID -19 \u00een economie, ci le poate diminua \u015fi ar putea preveni o criz\u0103 financiar\u0103 prin eliminarea riscului legislativ din sectorul bancar. \u00cen prezent, sunt cel pu\u0163in opt legi\/ proiecte de lege care pot afecta iremediabil activitatea industriei bancare. Cu aceste ini\u0163iative legislative, Rom\u00e2nia face pa\u015fi \u00eenapoi \u00een procesul de dezvoltare economic\u0103.<\/p>

\u00cen momentul de fa\u0163\u0103, sistemul bancar din Rom\u00e2nia este solu\u0163ia de redresare economic\u0103, iar dialogul este cheia. Ra\u0163iunea economic\u0103 \u015fi echilibrul \u00een dozarea ini\u0163iativelor \u015fi m\u0103surilor sunt imperios necesare.<\/p>

Reporter:<\/strong> Cum v\u0103d b\u0103ncile m\u0103surile adoptate de autorit\u0103\u0163i pentru sus\u0163inerea clien\u0163ilor \u015fi ce efecte vor avea acestea asupra sistemului bancar? Cum aplic\u0103 sistemul bancar reglement\u0103rile \u00een vigoare, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere c\u0103 avem, \u00een paralel, o ordonan\u0163\u0103 de guvern \u015fi o lege aprobat\u0103 \u00een parlament, pentru am\u00e2narea ratelor bancare, mai ales c\u0103 ambele sunt la CCR?<\/p>

Gabriela Folcu\u0163:<\/strong> Mesajul sistemului bancar a fost, la unison, de sprijin pentru clien\u0163ii afecta\u0163i de efectele pandemiei. \u00cen prezent, sistemul bancar aplic\u0103 prevederile legisla\u0163iei \u00een vigoare, respectiv OUG 37\/2020 \u015fi sunt b\u0103nci care mai acord\u0103 \u015fi alte facilit\u0103\u0163i complementare.<\/p>

Aplicarea extins\u0103, la clientii care nu mai pl\u0103teau sau la cei care-\u015fi permit s\u0103 pl\u0103teasc\u0103 obliga\u0163iile luare aferente creditelor, nu trebuie s\u0103 conduc\u0103 la afectarea lichidit\u0103\u0163ii \u015fi solvabilit\u0103\u0163ii sistemului bancar. Includerea debitorilor ale c\u0103ror expuneri \u00eenregistrau deja restan\u0163e la plat\u0103 la momentul declar\u0103rii st\u0103rii de urgen\u0163\u0103 nu se \u00eencadreaz\u0103 printre m\u0103surile care beneficiaz\u0103 de o aplicare flexibil\u0103 a cerin\u0163elor de reglementare conform recomand\u0103rilor autorit\u0103\u0163ilor bancare europene \u015fi na\u0163ionale. \u015ei atunci b\u0103ncile va trebui s\u0103 constituie provizioane suplimentare. Pentru clien\u0163ii persoane fizice care \u00eent\u00e2mpin\u0103 dificult\u0103\u0163i generate de alte cauze, exista \u015fi \u00eenainte un cadru legal dedicat cu solu\u0163ii specifice.<\/p>

\u00cen situa\u0163ia intr\u0103rii \u00een vigoare, \u00een forma aprobat\u0103, constituirea de provizioane \u015fi pierderile b\u0103ncilor vor avea un impact negativ asupra capitalurilor proprii ale institu\u0163iilor de credit. Astfel, este redus\u0103 capacitatea b\u0103ncilor de a continua s\u0103-\u015fi sprijine clien\u0163ii afla\u0163i \u00een dificultate real\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103torii ani, \u00een cazul unei recesiuni prelungite. \u00cen plus, anularea dreptului b\u0103ncilor de a beneficia de garan\u0163iile acordate de stat echivaleaz\u0103 cu o afectare a dreptului de proprietate garantat de Constitu\u0163ia Rom\u00e2niei, pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 aspecte grave legate de predictibilitatea legii. Apreciem c\u0103 se impune responsabilizarea suplimentar\u0103 a factorilor decizionali \u00een sus\u0163inerea mediului de afaceri \u015fi a consumatorilor f\u0103r\u0103 afectarea stabilit\u0103\u0163ii industriei bancare.<\/p>

Trebuie trasat\u0103 o linie clar\u0103 comun\u0103 \u00eentre ceea ce putem promite \u015fi ceea este benefic pentru economie \u015fi pentru rom\u00e2ni. Nu po\u0163i \u00eentinde coarda prea mult dac\u0103 vrei s\u0103 \u0163inte\u015fti cu arcul \u00een toate direc\u0163iile, c\u0103 se rupe. \u015ei atunci nu mai ai solu\u0163ii, nu mai po\u0163i \u0163inti niciun grup ce devine vulnerabil \u00een viitor. Pierzi instrumentul.<\/p>

Mesajul sistemului bancar a fost c\u0103 trebuie s\u0103 doz\u0103m corespunz\u0103tor m\u0103surile \u015fi efortul industrei bancare, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103 nu r\u0103m\u00e2nem f\u0103r\u0103 trac\u0163iune \u00een activitatea de creditare \u015fi mai ales, s\u0103 nu fie afectate lichiditatea \u015fi solvabilitatea sistemului.<\/p>

M\u0103surile luate de autorit\u0103\u0163i trebuie s\u0103 conserve normalitatea, dar vorbim de o nou\u0103 normalitate, de cea din criza de s\u0103n\u0103tate. Este nevoie de timp pentru reluarea obiceiurilor de consum ca \u00eenainte de criza de s\u0103n\u0103tate \u015fi implicit a activit\u0103\u0163ilor \u00een toate ramurile economiei. La nivel mondial, priorit\u0103\u0163ile autorit\u0103\u0163ilor ar trebui s\u0103 fie asigurarea disciplinei fiscal\u0103 \u015fi financiar\u0103, adoptarea de m\u0103suri de cre\u015ftere a intermedierii financiare \u015fi adaptarea cadrului legislativ care s\u0103 faciliteze solu\u0163ionarea pachetelor de expuneri neperformante.<\/p>

Reporter:<\/strong> Cu ce solu\u0163ii individuale vin b\u0103ncile pentru debitorii afecta\u0163i de pandemie? C\u00e2te solicit\u0103ri de am\u00e2nare a ratelor bancare au fost \u00eenregistrate p\u00e2n\u0103 acum \u015fi c\u00e2te au fost \u015fi solu\u0163ionate?<\/p>

Gabriela Folcu\u0163:<\/strong> \u00cenc\u0103 de la debutul crizei de s\u0103n\u0103tate, sistemul bancar a adoptat solu\u0163ii pentru suspendarea ratelor clien\u0163ilor care \u00eent\u00e2mpin\u0103 dificult\u0103\u0163i \u00een contextul pandemiei. M\u0103surile imediate au inclus suspendarea obliga\u0163iilor de plat\u0103 pe perioade de la o lun\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 la \u015fase luni. Ulterior, a fost adoptat \u015fi un cadru legislativ \u00een acest sens. Ultima statistic\u0103 disponibil\u0103, la data de 24 aprilie 2020, ar\u0103ta c\u0103 aproximativ 260.000 clien\u0163i persoane fizice \u015fi p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 10.000 de companii au depus solicit\u0103ri de suspendare a obliga\u0163iilor de plat\u0103 lunare din contractele de credit \u00eencheiate cu b\u0103ncile. Ca pondere \u00een portofoliu, aceste cifre reprezint\u0103 17% dintre creditele acordate persoanelor fizice \u015fi sub 10% din totalul creditelor accesate de persoanele juridice. Un procent de 65% era deja solu\u0163ionat. Astfel, num\u0103rul solu\u0163ion\u0103rilor era de 175.000, restul fiind \u00een curs de procesare.<\/p>

Solicit\u0103rile de suspendare la plata creditelor s-au efectuat at\u00e2t \u00een baza m\u0103surilor proactive adoptate de b\u0103nci pentru a sprijini clien\u0163ii afecta\u0163i de pandemia COVID-19, c\u00e2t \u015fi \u00een baza prevederilor OUG 37\/2020. Estimez c\u0103 numai \u00een baza ordonan\u0163ei num\u0103rul de solu\u0163ion\u0103ri ajungea la peste 40.000. \u00centre timp, statistica a evoluat at\u00e2t \u00een temeni de solicit\u0103ri, c\u00e2t \u015fi \u00een temeni de solu\u0163ion\u0103ri.<\/p>

Dac\u0103 analiz\u0103m solu\u0163ion\u0103rile, \u00een baza OUG 37\/2020, \u00een func\u0163ie de perioada de suspendare, vom observa c\u0103 doar o treime dintre clien\u0163i au ales s\u0103 suspende pe o perioad\u0103 de 9 luni, restul fiind \u00eemp\u0103r\u0163it inegal pe perioade de o lun\u0103, dou\u0103 luni, trei luni, etc… Din num\u0103rul de solicit\u0103ri \u015fi solu\u0163ion\u0103ri pe OUG 37\/2020, \u00een general suspendarea obliga\u0163iilor de plat\u0103 lunare s-a efectuat pentru creditele de consum (80%). Desigur, aceast\u0103 cifr\u0103 se modific\u0103 pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce avem noi solu\u0163ion\u0103ri.<\/p>

Reporter:<\/strong> Cum a evoluat creditarea, \u00een prima parte a anului? Cum a evoluat cererea pe segmentul creditelor ipotecare \u015fi imobiliare \u00een primele luni din 2020 \u015fi care sunt estim\u0103rile b\u0103ncilor pe partea de creditare, p\u00e2n\u0103 la finalul anului?<\/p>

Gabriela Folcu\u0163:<\/strong> Riscurile exogene constau \u00een cadrul legislativ impredictibil care afecteaz\u0103 inclusiv creditarea. Provoc\u0103rile cadrului legislativ \u00een domeniul bancar \u00een Rom\u00e2nia sunt \u00een m\u0103sur\u0103, \u00een situa\u0163ia promulg\u0103rii sau aprob\u0103rii legilor\/proiectelor de lege, s\u0103 afecteze iremediabil sistemul bancar.<\/p>

Privarea institu\u0163iilor de credit de o mare parte din veniturile \u00eenregistrate din creditare, inclusiv din execut\u0103ri silite, conform legilor aflate la Curtea Constitu\u0163ional\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei poate produce un impact negativ asupra credit\u0103rii. La acest impact negativ se adaug\u0103 necesarul sporit de provizioane pentru portofoliul incident, ceea ce poate fi de natur\u0103 s\u0103 afecteze grav creditarea \u00een Rom\u00e2nia. S\u0103 nu uit\u0103m c\u0103 Rom\u00e2nia \u00eenregistreaz\u0103 cel mai redus grad de intermediere financiar\u0103 (25%) \u00een r\u00e2ndul statelor din Uniunea European\u0103 (83% medie). De asemenea, accesul la \u00eemprumuturi arat\u0103 disparit\u0103\u0163i la nivel na\u0163ional. \u00cen Bucure\u015fti, aproximativ 65% dintre adul\u0163i au \u00eemprumuturi, comparativ cu media na\u0163ional\u0103 de 36%.<\/p>

Activitatea de creditare poate fi afectat\u0103 pe partea de ofert\u0103 din cauza acestor initiative legislative \u015fi pe partea de cerere, dar pe zona aceasta sper\u0103m c\u0103 pe o perioad\u0103 scurt\u0103. Soldul creditului neguvernamental a avansat cu 6,9% \u00een ritm anual \u00een luna martie fa\u0163\u0103 de martie 2019 \u015fi cu 0,6% fa\u0163\u0103 de luna februarie. Este o cre\u015ftere relativ normal\u0103 a credit\u0103rii, dar se v\u0103d unele tendin\u0163e de reducere a vitezei. Probabil c\u0103 vom vedea efectul crizei asupra credit\u0103rii \u00een datele statistice \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu luna aprilie. B\u0103ncile se vor concentra pe finan\u0163area companiilor pentru a asigura o redresare c\u00e2t mai rapid\u0103 a economiei. Pe acest segment, un risc poten\u0163ial poate fi determinat de insolven\u0163e, \u00een condi\u0163iile \u00een care creditul comercial este foarte ridicat \u00een Rom\u00e2nia, raportul fiind de 3 : 1 comparativ cu creditul bancar.<\/p>

Creditul ipotecar a \u00eenceput \u00eenc\u0103 din anul 2019 s\u0103 \u00eenregistreze o cre\u015ftere mai redus\u0103, de 7,8% comparativ cu anul 2018. \u00cen primul trimestru din 2020, cre\u015fterea \u00eenregistrat\u0103 a fost de 9% (martie 2020\/ martie 2019).<\/p>

Este foarte probabil ca aceast\u0103 criz\u0103 de s\u0103n\u0103tate s\u0103 se transforme \u00eentr-o criz\u0103 financiar\u0103. Statele vor avea nevoie de finan\u0163\u0103ri pentru a acoperi deficitele. Solu\u0163iile de stimulare a economiilor includ capital. Tocmai de aceea este recomandabil ca sistemul bancar s\u0103 fie partener \u00een aceast\u0103 criz\u0103. Sistemul bancar face apel pentru \u00eencheierea unui parteneriat constructiv cu autorit\u0103\u0163ile pentru a finan\u0163a repornirea motoarelor economiei \u00een condi\u0163ii de predictibilitate. Redresarea economic\u0103 nu poate veni f\u0103r\u0103 sprijinul industriei bancare.<\/p>

Reporter:<\/strong> Care este situatia depozitelor \u015fi conturilor de economii? Au fost f\u0103cute depuneri, respectiv au avut loc retrageri importante \u00een aceast\u0103 situa\u0163ie?<\/p>

Retragerile de numerar au \u00eenregistrat o cre\u015ftere la mijlocul lunii martie, c\u00e2nd clien\u0163ii au dorit s\u0103 se asigure c\u0103 au suficient numerar la dispozi\u0163ie. Aceast\u0103 situa\u0163ie a fost administrat\u0103 corespunz\u0103tor \u015fi, mai mult, economisirea a \u00eenregistrat o cre\u015ftere important\u0103.<\/p>

Statistica aferent\u0103 lunii martie arat\u0103 o cre\u015ftere cu 13,6% a depozitelor, acesta fiind un ritm de cre\u015ftere mult mai sus\u0163inut comparativ cu lunile anterioare. S\u0103 nu uit\u0103m c\u0103 starea de urgen\u0163\u0103 determinat\u0103 de pandemie a fost decretat\u0103 la jum\u0103tatea lunii martie. Este posibil s\u0103 asist\u0103m la o schimbare a obiceiurilor de consum \u015fi la o cre\u015ftere a con\u015ftientiz\u0103rii privind necesitatea economisii a cel pu\u0163in 2-3 salarii pentru a acoperi nevoi viitoare determinate de poten\u0163iale crize. Partea plin\u0103 a paharului este aceea c\u0103, pe parcursul acestei crize de s\u0103n\u0103tate, am asistat la un fenomen exacerbat \u015fi benefic al digitaliz\u0103rii. Beneficiile pentru clien\u0163ii b\u0103ncilor sunt notabile \u015fi, \u00een acest sens, sper\u0103m s\u0103 fie aprobat\u0103 legea semn\u0103turii electronice care ar poten\u0163a, \u00een condi\u0163ii de distan\u0163are social\u0103, rela\u0163ia cu clien\u0163ii lor.<\/p>

Reporter:<\/strong> Cum estimeaz\u0103 b\u0103ncile c\u0103 va evolua rata de neperformante dup\u0103 aplicarea solu\u0163iilor de sus\u0163inere a debitorilor?<\/p>

Gabriela Folcu\u0163:<\/strong> Rata expunerilor neperformante a continuat traiectoria descendent\u0103, ajung\u00e2nd la 3,98% \u00een luna februarie 2020. Este foarte probabil s\u0103 asist\u0103m la o inversare de trend pe fondul dificult\u0103\u0163ilor pe care le vor \u00eenregistra clien\u0163ii \u00een perioada de dup\u0103 criza de s\u0103n\u0103tate. La acestea se adaug\u0103 \u015fi constr\u00e2ngerile poten\u0163iale venite ca urmare a modific\u0103rii cadrului legislativ. Cre\u015fterea expunerilor neperformante genereaz\u0103 vulnerabilit\u0103\u0163i \u00een sectorul financiar \u015fi reduce capacitatea de creditare.<\/p>

Una dintre condi\u0163iile esen\u0163iale pentru o revigorare rapid\u0103 a economiei \u015fi pentru ie\u015firea din recesiune \u00een scenariul „V” este asigurarea disciplinei financiare.<\/p>

Reporter:<\/strong> Mul\u0163umesc!<\/p>

Sursa: https:\/\/www.bursa.ro\/redresarea-economica-nu-poate-veni-fara-sprijinul-industriei-bancare-23155936<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gabriela Folcu\u021b, Director Executiv Asocia\u021bia Rom\u00e2n\u0103 a B\u0103ncilor, BURSA \u2013 7 mai 2020<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":2646493,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-955129","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aparitii-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nRedresarea economic\u0103 nu poate veni f\u0103r\u0103 sprijinul industriei bancare - Asocia\u021bia Rom\u00e2n\u0103 a B\u0103ncilor (ARB)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.arb.ro\/en\/955129-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Redresarea economic\u0103 nu poate veni f\u0103r\u0103 sprijinul industriei bancare - 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