{"id":3686116,"date":"2026-02-05T11:39:34","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T09:39:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.arb.ro\/?p=3686116"},"modified":"2026-02-05T11:47:05","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T09:47:05","slug":"principalele-riscuri-economice-in-2026-florin-danescu-presedinte-executiv-arb-intrarea-romaniei-in-junk-ar-fi-insemnat-practic-o-consfintire-de-faliment-riscurile-raman-ridicate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.arb.ro\/en\/principalele-riscuri-economice-in-2026-florin-danescu-presedinte-executiv-arb-intrarea-romaniei-in-junk-ar-fi-insemnat-practic-o-consfintire-de-faliment-riscurile-raman-ridicate\/","title":{"rendered":"Principalele riscuri economice \u00een 2026. Florin D\u0103nescu, pre\u0219edinte executiv ARB: Intrarea Rom\u00e2niei \u00een junk ar fi \u00eensemnat, practic, o consfin\u021bire de faliment. Riscurile r\u0103m\u00e2n ridicate"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Instabilitatea politic\u0103, riscul retrograd\u0103rii la categoria junk, deficitul bugetar accelerat \u0219i impredictibilitatea fiscal\u0103 au marcat anul 2025 pentru economia Rom\u00e2niei. Sectorul bancar a absorbit \u0219ocuri majore, \u00eentr-un context de taxare crescut\u0103 \u0219i percep\u021bii negative, cu efecte directe asupra credit\u0103rii, investi\u021biilor \u0219i comportamentului economic. \u00cen 2026, reducerea deficitului \u0219i costul datoriei publice r\u0103m\u00e2n principalele riscuri.<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Gabriela Folcu\u0163, Director Executiv - Asocia\u0163ia Rom\u00e2n\u0103 a B\u0103ncilor<\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Anul 2025 a fost unul dintre cei mai complica\u021bi ani pentru economia Rom\u00e2niei, iar sectorul bancar a resim\u021bit direct cumulul de riscuri politice \u0219i economice ap\u0103rute \u00eenc\u0103 din finalul lui 2024. Florin D\u0103nescu, pre\u0219edinte executiv al Asocia\u021biei Rom\u00e2ne a B\u0103ncilor, afirm\u0103 c\u0103 \u00eenceputul lui 2025 a fost dominat de o stare accentuat\u0103 de impredictibilitate, generat\u0103 de instabilitatea politic\u0103 \u0219i de incertitudinile legate de ratingul de \u021bar\u0103. \u201eDac\u0103 rememor\u0103m evenimentele importante care au atins anul 2025, \u00eencepe \u00een 2024 cu instabilitatea politic\u0103, cu riscul politic, cum \u00eel numesc economi\u0219tii macro, cu situa\u021bia de dup\u0103 alegeri, cu anularea alegerilor, care au dus la un element de impredictibilitate ridicat<\/em>\u201d, a declarat Florin D\u0103nescu, pre\u0219edinte executiv Asocia\u021bia Rom\u00e2n\u0103 a B\u0103ncilor, la emisiunea Profit Live, realizat\u0103 pe Prima News TV de Profit.ro, de luni p\u00e2n\u0103 joi, de la ora 11.00. Potrivit acestuia, pe pie\u021bele interna\u021bionale s-a acumulat rapid percep\u021bia unui risc major pentru Rom\u00e2nia, alimentat\u0103 de posibilitatea retrograd\u0103rii la categoria junk. O astfel de evolu\u021bie ar fi avut consecin\u021be grave asupra economiei \u0219i investi\u021biilor. \u201ePentru o \u021bar\u0103 cu structura noastr\u0103 economic\u0103, deci \u00een dezvoltare relativ rapid\u0103, dar cu un volum care \u00eenc\u0103 nu este foarte mare economic \u0219i dependen\u021ba noastr\u0103 de pie\u021bele interna\u021bionale foarte ridicat\u0103, a fi clasat \u00een junk din perspectiva rating-ului \u00eensemna ne\u00eencrederea investi\u021bional\u0103 pentru Rom\u00e2nia \u0219i asta ar fi \u00eensemnat o consfin\u021bire de faliment \u00eentr-un fel. Iar toate a\u0219tept\u0103rile societ\u0103\u021bii, industriilor din Rom\u00e2nia pentru mai bine ar fi fost \u00eenchise nu definitiv, dar pe o perioad\u0103 lung\u0103 de timp<\/em>\u201d, a spus Florin D\u0103nescu.<\/p>

De\u0219i acest scenariu a fost evitat, el arat\u0103 c\u0103 emo\u021bia din pia\u021b\u0103 a fost mult mai mare dec\u00e2t a fost perceput\u0103 public, iar b\u0103ncile au avut un rol esen\u021bial \u00een absorb\u021bia acestor \u0219ocuri. Sectorul bancar a func\u021bionat at\u00e2t ca amortizor de risc, c\u00e2t \u0219i ca furnizor de semnale credibile c\u0103tre investitorii externi. \u201eB\u0103ncile trebuie privite ca un absorbant de riscuri \u0219i de percep\u021bii, dar \u0219i ca un element care d\u0103 feedback-uri foarte puternice \u0219i credibile pe pie\u021bele interna\u021bionale<\/em>\u201d, a explicat reprezentantul ARB. Pe fondul acestor riscuri, problema deficitului bugetar a devenit un factor suplimentar de presiune, acceler\u00e2nd percep\u021bia de neseriozitate fiscal\u0103. \u00cen acest context, sectorul bancar a fost afectat de decizii fiscale care au amplificat impredictibilitatea.<\/p>

Florin D\u0103nescu aminte\u0219te c\u0103, \u00eencep\u00e2nd cu 2023, a fost introdus\u0103 o tax\u0103 de 2% pe cifra de afaceri a b\u0103ncilor, \u00een condi\u021biile unui deficit bugetar de peste 5%. Aceast\u0103 tax\u0103 a avut un impact semnificativ asupra nivelului de impozitare efectiv\u0103. \u201eB\u0103ncile sunt finan\u021batorul principal al Rom\u00e2niei, al economiei rom\u00e2ne\u0219ti \u0219i nu po\u021bi s\u0103 o extragi din actul economic. Pur \u0219i simplu, dac\u0103 vrei s\u0103 vorbe\u0219ti de Rom\u00e2nia \u0219i de economie, trebuie s\u0103 vorbe\u0219ti \u0219i despre b\u0103nci. (…) Acest 2% aplicat pe cifra de afaceri este echivalent, la nivelul mediei sistemului bancar, cu aproximativ 8 puncte de impozit pe profit. Impozitul pe profit al b\u0103ncilor a crescut de la 16% la aproximativ 24%<\/em>\u201d, a precizat el.<\/p>

Ulterior, \u00een loc ca aceast\u0103 tax\u0103 s\u0103 fie redus\u0103 conform angajamentelor ini\u021biale, ea a fost majorat\u0103. \u00cen 2025, taxa pe cifra de afaceri a ajuns la 4% pentru b\u0103ncile mari, ceea ce a dus la o cre\u0219tere \u0219i mai accentuat\u0103 a poverii fiscale. \u201eDeci, o cre\u0219tere semnificativ\u0103 a impozit\u0103rii, a tax\u0103rii industriei bancare, care \u00eensemna principalul finan\u021bator al economiei Rom\u00e2niei \u0219i cu transfer total al acestor costuri \u00een economie \u00een mod evident, a\u0219a func\u021bioneaz\u0103 economia de pia\u021b\u0103. Noi atunci solicitam politicos, dar \u0219i ra\u021bional \u0219i obiectiv, c\u0103 ar trebui s\u0103 se fac\u0103 un plan structurat de reducerea deficitului \u0219i care s\u0103 ating\u0103, \u00een mod evident, cheltuielile bugetare \u0219i c\u0103 acestea ar trebui comunicate anual, la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului \u0219i taxa pe b\u0103nci s\u0103 fie temporar\u0103, ceea ce s-a \u0219i reu\u0219it atunci, promi\u021b\u00e2ndu-se prin lege, prin ordonan\u021b\u0103, nu mai \u0219tiu cum s-a dat, c\u0103 \u00een 2026 ianuarie aceast\u0103 tax\u0103 de 2% va deveni 1%. Ok. Dup\u0103 aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103, bine\u00een\u021beles c\u0103 nu s-au f\u0103cut acele comunic\u0103ri, nu s-au redus cheltuielile bugetare, banii b\u0103ncilor \u00eentr-o form\u0103 de solidaritate cu economia Rom\u00e2niei au fost cheltui\u021bi tot pe cre\u0219teri de pensii \u0219i salarii bugetare. (…) Faptul c\u0103 s-a mai aplicat anul trecut, \u00een 2025, \u00eenc\u0103 un 2%, ad\u0103ugat la vechiul 2%, s-a ajuns la 4%. S-a crescut de la 2% la 4% pentru b\u0103ncile mai mari. Deci, \u00een loc s\u0103 se reduc\u0103 de la 2% la 1%, s-a crescut de la 2% la 4%, apropo de predictibilitate. Pentru c\u0103 asta este cum au trecut b\u0103ncile. Au trecut la un sentiment de impredictibilitate mai mare<\/em>\u201d, a mai declarat Florin D\u0103nescu.<\/p>

El subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 aceste decizii nu afecteaz\u0103 doar b\u0103ncile, ci transmit un semnal negativ c\u0103tre to\u021bi investitorii. \u201eInvestitorii percep a\u0219a: dac\u0103 industria bancar\u0103, care este o industrie puternic\u0103 \u0219i influent\u0103, poate p\u0103\u021bi acest lucru, la noi poate fi mult mai simplu s\u0103 se \u00eent\u00e2mple<\/em>\u201d, a explicat acesta. Florin D\u0103nescu atrage aten\u021bia c\u0103 sectorul bancar este principalul finan\u021bator al economiei rom\u00e2ne\u0219ti, iar costurile suplimentare generate de taxare se transfer\u0103 inevitabil \u00een economie, afect\u00e2nd at\u00e2t popula\u021bia, c\u00e2t \u0219i companiile. \u201eDac\u0103 b\u0103ncile au costuri mai mari, aceste costuri se transfer\u0103 integral \u00een economie, la nivelul fiec\u0103rui individ. Poate s\u0103 \u00eensemne c\u0103 un t\u00e2n\u0103r nu mai poate accesa un credit pentru cas\u0103 sau c\u0103 o companie nu se mai poate \u00eemprumuta pentru a se dezvolta<\/em>\u201d, a spus el. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, D\u0103nescu contest\u0103 percep\u021bia larg r\u0103sp\u00e2ndit\u0103 privind profiturile mari ale b\u0103ncilor, ar\u0103t\u00e2nd c\u0103, din punct de vedere al profitabilit\u0103\u021bii, sectorul bancar se situeaz\u0103 constant pe ultimele locuri \u00eentre industriile din Rom\u00e2nia. \u201eDatele arat\u0103 c\u0103 b\u0103ncile, \u00een ultimii 15 ani, cu indicatorii de profitabilitate, s-au pozi\u021bionat \u00een general pe ultimul loc din cele 24 de industrii ale Rom\u00e2niei<\/em>\u201d, a afirmat acesta.<\/p>

El a ad\u0103ugat c\u0103 indicatorii de profitabilitate sunt deja \u00een sc\u0103dere, ca efect al tax\u0103rii \u0219i al contextului economic. \u201eLa return on equity se observ\u0103 o cobor\u00e2re de la aproximativ 20% spre sub 18%, iar la return on assets de la aproape 1,9% spre 1,6%. Pentru alte industrii, aceste modific\u0103ri sunt foarte mari<\/em>\u201d, a explicat Florin D\u0103nescu. \u00cen opinia sa, solidaritatea fiscal\u0103 a fost asumat\u0103 de sectorul bancar, \u00eens\u0103 problema major\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2ne eficien\u021ba acestor m\u0103suri \u00een reducerea deficitului. \u201eCeea ce ne \u00eengrijoreaz\u0103 este dac\u0103 acest efort conteaz\u0103 \u0219i reduce deficitul. Vedem o sc\u0103dere spre 7,5\u20137,8%, dar a\u0219tept\u0103m s\u0103 vedem reduceri reale de cheltuieli bugetare<\/em>\u201d, a spus el. Pentru anul 2026, riscurile r\u0103m\u00e2n ridicate, \u00een special din perspectiva datoriei publice \u0219i a costului acesteia. D\u0103nescu avertizeaz\u0103 c\u0103 ritmul rapid de \u00eendatorare poate genera presiuni greu de gestionat \u00een viitor. \u201eNe-am \u00eendatorat at\u00e2t de repede \u00eenc\u00e2t costul \u00een dob\u00e2nzi al acestei datorii poate deveni tot mai greu de pl\u0103tit. Deciziile care se iau ast\u0103zi au un impact puternic pentru viitor<\/em>\u201d, a declarat pre\u0219edintele executiv al ARB.<\/p>

El subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 problema deficitului nu poate fi rezolvat\u0103 f\u0103r\u0103 a aborda cauza principal\u0103, respectiv cre\u0219terea nesustenabil\u0103 a cheltuielilor bugetare. \u201eNu po\u021bi s\u0103 rezolvi o problem\u0103 dac\u0103 nu tratezi cauza. Cauza acestui deficit a fost cre\u0219terea cheltuielilor bugetare neacoperite de venituri<\/em>\u201d, a afirmat D\u0103nescu. \u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te activitatea bancar\u0103 \u0219i comportamentul clien\u021bilor, acesta arat\u0103 c\u0103 se observ\u0103 o temperare a credit\u0103rii \u0219i o cre\u0219tere u\u0219oar\u0103 a neperforman\u021bei, \u00een special \u00een r\u00e2ndul companiilor mici \u0219i mijlocii. \u201eVedem semnale clare la nivelul neperforman\u021bei, nu \u00eengrijor\u0103toare, dar dup\u0103 o perioad\u0103 foarte lung\u0103 de sc\u0103dere. Volumele de creditare au sc\u0103zut, iar comportamentul economic s-a schimbat<\/em>\u201d, a spus el.<\/p>

\u00cen final, Florin D\u0103nescu insist\u0103 asupra necesit\u0103\u021bii unei solidarit\u0103\u021bi reale \u0219i generalizate \u00een economie, avertiz\u00e2nd c\u0103 abord\u0103rile fragmentate nu fac dec\u00e2t s\u0103 amplifice riscurile. \u201eSolidaritatea trebuie s\u0103 se generalizeze pentru a fi solidaritate. Dac\u0103 li se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 celorlal\u021bi, ni se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla \u0219i nou\u0103. Economic, aceste semnale trebuie transmise pentru a nu periclita viitorul pe termen lung<\/em>\u201d, a concluzionat pre\u0219edintele executiv al Asocia\u021biei Rom\u00e2ne a B\u0103ncilor.<\/p>

Surs\u0103: aici<\/a><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Instabilitatea politic\u0103, riscul retrograd\u0103rii la categoria junk, deficitul bugetar accelerat \u0219i impredictibilitatea fiscal\u0103 au marcat anul 2025 pentru economia Rom\u00e2niei. Sectorul bancar a absorbit \u0219ocuri majore, \u00eentr-un context de taxare crescut\u0103 \u0219i percep\u021bii negative, cu efecte directe asupra credit\u0103rii, investi\u021biilor \u0219i comportamentului economic. \u00cen 2026, reducerea deficitului \u0219i costul datoriei publice r\u0103m\u00e2n principalele riscuri. Gabriela […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":3686115,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3686116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-aparitii-media"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPrincipalele riscuri economice \u00een 2026. Florin D\u0103nescu, pre\u0219edinte executiv ARB: Intrarea Rom\u00e2niei \u00een junk ar fi \u00eensemnat, practic, o consfin\u021bire de faliment. Riscurile r\u0103m\u00e2n ridicate - Asocia\u021bia Rom\u00e2n\u0103 a B\u0103ncilor (ARB)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.arb.ro\/en\/principalele-riscuri-economice-in-2026-florin-danescu-presedinte-executiv-arb-intrarea-romaniei-in-junk-ar-fi-insemnat-practic-o-consfintire-de-faliment-riscurile-raman-ridicate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Principalele riscuri economice \u00een 2026. Florin D\u0103nescu, pre\u0219edinte executiv ARB: Intrarea Rom\u00e2niei \u00een junk ar fi \u00eensemnat, practic, o consfin\u021bire de faliment. 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